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The World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned of an imminent influenza pandemic resulting from the mutation of avian virus H5N1 (bird flu), or, of it combining with a human influenza.

 Either way, a new and possibly deadly flu would be able to pass effectively from human to human. Once a pandemic is declared there will be immediate implications for New Zealanders.

  1. Air travel will virtually stop worldwide as aircrew refuse to fly
  2. Borders will be closed to aircraft
  3. New Zealanders overseas may be stranded
  4. All economic activity world-wide will be greatly affected
If border control is ineffective the influenza pandemic will possibly arrive in NZ soon after it first appears in Asia. Pandemics tend to come in up to three main waves each lasting for about eight to twelve weeks. The gap between each wave can vary markedly but they may be months apart. In 1918 the second wave was the most deadly. A pandemic may sweep the world over a period of a year or more.

The effect on society will be dramatic. Our usual production, transport and supply chains will be greatly affected. A large number of people may die (in 1918 around 1% of the NZ population,19% of Western Samoa). The consequences to all of us will depend on the severity and duration of the pandemic and our level of preparedness. The NZ Government is probably doing more to prepare for this eventuality than most. However the problems are immense and governments can only do so much. It is imperative that individuals, families, communities and businesses prepare for an event that may occur next month, next year or sometime in the next 10 years. WHO say it is a matter of when, not if. Here are some reasonable assumptions to make when considering your plans.

Assumptions

  1. That a pandemic could begin at any time. Plan now and avoid the chaos and panic buying that will inevitably follow the outbreak.

  2. Travel restrictions may apply within New Zealand as areas are quarantined. Some communities may seek to isolate themselves. Consider that you may be confined to your house.

  3. Serious shortages of food, household basics, pharmaceuticals and fuel may occur.

  4. Public services such as rubbish collection and public transport may be disrupted. Electricity, water and sewage will continue to operate in most places but may become vulnerable because of lack of routine maintenance.

  5. Schools and universities will close, possibly for several months. Bans will be placed on public gatherings such as sporting events, movie theatres, conferences etc.

  6. Many workplaces will close temporarily or have reduced work hours. Others will cease business permanently.

  7. Hospitals, health and social welfare services will be seriously overloaded.

  8. A Vaccine may be unavailable for at least 6 months.

  9. Someone you know will get ill and need your care.



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